God Works in Mysterious Ways
"To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of His purpose." -- Florence Nightingale
This theory is propounded, albeit inadvertently, by James Surowiecki in The Wisdom of Crowds. For example do you know about the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) project?
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Project
Surowiecki explains, "Founded in 1988 and run by the College of Business at the University of Iowa, the IEM features a host of markets designed to predict the outcomes of elections -- presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, and foreign. Open to anyone who wants to particupate the IEM allows people to buy and sell futures "contracts" based on how they think a given candidate will do in an upcoming election. " There are basically two contracts: (1) who will win an election and (2) what percentage of the final popular vote a candidate will get.
How has IEM done? Surowiecki: "Well, a study of the IEM's performance in forty-nine different elections between 1988 and 2000 found that the elcetion-eve prices in the IEM were, on average, off by just 1.37 percent in presidential elections, 3.43 percent in other U.S. elections and 2.12 percent in foreign elections. (Those numbers are in absolute terms.).... The IEM has generally outperformed the major natioal polls, and has been more accurate than them even months in advance of the actual election."
The IEM isn't very big. "... there have never been more than eight hundred or so traders in the market -- and it doesn't, in any way, reflect the makeup of the electorate as a whole."
Isn't this fascinating? More in upcoming posts. I think Surowiecki is describing the collective Mind, the all-Mind that we intuitives are so familiar with.
Learn more HERE. Also visit these websites which explore further, MARTEK and MACROECONOMICS .
Why do I love this book so much? Because it is utterly intuitive. I was going to say it changed the way I think but it would be more accurate to say, it validated the way I've always felt.
I have always felt funny about economics, like Nightingale. It's like watching bird flocks. When I tell someone I am a psychic, they think this is mysterious. Well, I think accounting is mysterious. I have come back from meeting with two different accountants on the same tax return and had their estimates different by a ten fold increment. "Well, it could be $4,000," says one. "Well, it could be $40,000," says the other and they are looking at exactly the same material and no one is trying anything funny. It seems to me that estimating accounting is far more difficult than foretelling the future of some of my clients :-)
Here's another example. I got a reading from a world famous astrologer many, many years ago. She charged then and charges now the top of the market, which is quiet a bit of money. [And you thought I charged a lot!] I hadn't seen her for awhile and she had just raised her rates. I think she was feeling guilty about this. She has Saturn in the 10th house. It came time to pay and I asked her how much, shrugging. I said I never could remember how much it was. I have a packed 9th house. We don't care about money the way other people do, I've learned that :-) "What's the matter, Nancy?!?", she practically screamed. "Don't you think this is valuable? " "Jan," I replied. "I think it's INvaluable. That's just the thing. There is essentially no amount of money in the world that could really pay you for what you have just done for me."
So that's why I think economics is weird. What's the "value" of someone who is extra kind to my toddler grandchild when he is frightened and alone for a moment during the day? What's the value of someone who gives you hope and courage during a rough time in your life? What's the value of someone who holds your hand during a painful biopsy procedure in the doctor's office and seems to really care?
The reason the IEM is so accurate is that men (mostly, I'm sure) are asked to put their money where their mouth is. Centuries and centuries of conditioning have prepared them to take their money seriously. If they put a bet down, you can be sure it's their best guess. Without that, it's academic.
Later I'll write about the proposal for betting on the future of the Middle East and other places around the world.
"To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of His purpose." -- Florence Nightingale
This theory is propounded, albeit inadvertently, by James Surowiecki in The Wisdom of Crowds. For example do you know about the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) project?
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Project
Surowiecki explains, "Founded in 1988 and run by the College of Business at the University of Iowa, the IEM features a host of markets designed to predict the outcomes of elections -- presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, and foreign. Open to anyone who wants to particupate the IEM allows people to buy and sell futures "contracts" based on how they think a given candidate will do in an upcoming election. " There are basically two contracts: (1) who will win an election and (2) what percentage of the final popular vote a candidate will get.
How has IEM done? Surowiecki: "Well, a study of the IEM's performance in forty-nine different elections between 1988 and 2000 found that the elcetion-eve prices in the IEM were, on average, off by just 1.37 percent in presidential elections, 3.43 percent in other U.S. elections and 2.12 percent in foreign elections. (Those numbers are in absolute terms.).... The IEM has generally outperformed the major natioal polls, and has been more accurate than them even months in advance of the actual election."
The IEM isn't very big. "... there have never been more than eight hundred or so traders in the market -- and it doesn't, in any way, reflect the makeup of the electorate as a whole."
Isn't this fascinating? More in upcoming posts. I think Surowiecki is describing the collective Mind, the all-Mind that we intuitives are so familiar with.
Learn more HERE. Also visit these websites which explore further, MARTEK and MACROECONOMICS .
Why do I love this book so much? Because it is utterly intuitive. I was going to say it changed the way I think but it would be more accurate to say, it validated the way I've always felt.
I have always felt funny about economics, like Nightingale. It's like watching bird flocks. When I tell someone I am a psychic, they think this is mysterious. Well, I think accounting is mysterious. I have come back from meeting with two different accountants on the same tax return and had their estimates different by a ten fold increment. "Well, it could be $4,000," says one. "Well, it could be $40,000," says the other and they are looking at exactly the same material and no one is trying anything funny. It seems to me that estimating accounting is far more difficult than foretelling the future of some of my clients :-)
Here's another example. I got a reading from a world famous astrologer many, many years ago. She charged then and charges now the top of the market, which is quiet a bit of money. [And you thought I charged a lot!] I hadn't seen her for awhile and she had just raised her rates. I think she was feeling guilty about this. She has Saturn in the 10th house. It came time to pay and I asked her how much, shrugging. I said I never could remember how much it was. I have a packed 9th house. We don't care about money the way other people do, I've learned that :-) "What's the matter, Nancy?!?", she practically screamed. "Don't you think this is valuable? " "Jan," I replied. "I think it's INvaluable. That's just the thing. There is essentially no amount of money in the world that could really pay you for what you have just done for me."
So that's why I think economics is weird. What's the "value" of someone who is extra kind to my toddler grandchild when he is frightened and alone for a moment during the day? What's the value of someone who gives you hope and courage during a rough time in your life? What's the value of someone who holds your hand during a painful biopsy procedure in the doctor's office and seems to really care?
The reason the IEM is so accurate is that men (mostly, I'm sure) are asked to put their money where their mouth is. Centuries and centuries of conditioning have prepared them to take their money seriously. If they put a bet down, you can be sure it's their best guess. Without that, it's academic.
Later I'll write about the proposal for betting on the future of the Middle East and other places around the world.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home